My stock picks this September 2013 [Philippines]

CPG (Century Properties) if below P1.40 since it's still undervalued (7+ P/E), even below P1.50 I'd still consider it value-investing. This remains my "Warren Buffet Stock". Hold for 1-2 years unless there's a crisis.

In the property sector BEL (Belle Corp.) may also be worth mentioning as their profit may jump. They should already be earning from the lease of Melco's casino and they'll probably earn more when the casino starts operating. 

COSCO  if below P10. This is a medium risk stock since it's relatively new but with the management and the direction they are heading, I believe it will be a great holding company one day; in the likes of SM if done right. But there's a long way to go. 

OV (Philodrill) - Placing a relatively small allotment. Higher risk since oil explorations can go either way, however, their direction in reaching 2B profit in 2-3 years time may be in place since they already started drilling in Galoc field to double production. 2B net profit means a P/E of 4+ at  the current price of P0.039.

AP (Aboitiz Power) - below P35. I bet on power generation in the next 3-5 years especially that Mindanao is under-supplied. AP also gives good cash dividends (4-5%), so I'll just continue to invest in it on a quarterly basis as an alternative to bonds. I'm okay with the price not moving too much because of the cash div.

[Update 9/19/2013] Please disregard my AP recommendation. I might have missed something here. Seems Aboitiz Power has big foreign debt which means they are very vulnerable to Peso depreciation which is happening now and might probably continue to happen (calculated guess) in the long term. Aside from this however, AP is a good company, but their vulnerability to forex changes (as well as other companies with big $ debt) means their profits will be very volatile.

Note the above is under the assumption that there are no crisis. Global stock market is unstable due to US, China, India/Asia. Watch out for international news that can affect our market, like US Fed tapering. And as always, the sell strategy is not disclosed here because it depends on your personality and risk appetite. So plan a good sell strategy so you won't get left behind.

Good luck and happy investing!

My Stock Picks for July 2013 [Philippines]

The Philippine stock market was lashed by multiple crises outside the country: U.S. Fed's QE madness, China's slowing economy, Japan's overheating but inspite all these, our country remains fundamentally sound; our GDP is high (7.8%), inflation is low (2%-3%), interest rates remains stably low. My opinion is, generally, the market is in an upward trend (unless we encounter another crisis).

Though I worry that Fed's QE is the biggest bubble to burst yet, that's for another time and for another blog entry. Now, markets are generally at ease, so until the next crisis, here are my stock recommendations:


CPG (Stock information)

CPG's share price went down big time. Based from my analysis, this stock is highly undervalued (7.5 P/E at P1.42). The upside is great. If it reaches P2.00, the profit is already 40%. If it goes back to its 52 week high, that 71% profit.

I call this my Warren Buffet stock because usually when you invest in a stock, at times it haunts you and you can't put your eyes off the market. This one makes me sleep at night. It's a personal opinion; do your research and find your "Warren Buffet" stock.

My buy price is 1.25-1.45.


MER (Stock information)

When the rumor that San Miguel (SMC) company was in trouble, this stock was also affected somehow because SMC has 30% stake in Meralco. Today (July 19), San Miguel's officially announced the sale of shares in Manila Electric Company at P270 a piece. This made the MER's stock price tumble to 275-280 range.

However, Meralco hasn't change, its fundamentals are the same, and it remains a strong company. Meralco shouldn't be affected even if SMC goes bankrupt (knock on wood). There's no real fundamental analysis here, its P/E is still a bit high (17) but it was high ever since. The only analysis is if it bounces back, the upside is big. 52 week high = P397 which is a 43% upside from P277.

My buy range is 270-280.


MWC (Stock information)

Manila Water share price dropped when its deal with Indonesia failed. It was a big opportunity that was lost, however, Manila Water's P/E is at 12 (relatively low) and the snag seems to be forgotten since its price is now increasing.

My buy price is 32-34


MBT (Stock information)

I owned MBT shares before I sold it at 117 then its shareprice skyrocketed to 139.5. Compared to other stocks, the upside is not that great but I recommend this stock because it's one of the stocks that rebounds quickly.

Buy range: 105-109




Obligatory disclaimer: Follow above recommendations at your own risk. The above guide does not tell when you will sell, it's really up to you.

My Top Stock Pick(s) for May 2013 [Philippines]

The main stock I picked in my last entry, which is CPG, has already increased in value. For those who are looking for new opportunities, below may be worth noting.

FGEN

At 21.95, First Gen Corporation's PE is 9.8. Like in my previous entry, I personally don't like Lopez companies, but at the moment, it may be an opportunity that's too good to pass. If you buy it below 22.6, it may be a good deal.

Among LPZ, FGEN and EDC, FGEN may be the best bet for now. For the companies I researched in the month of May, only FGEN stood among the rest.


Disclaimer: Before buying or taking any recommendations, please do your own research. You should be convinced with the stock you'll be buying. Above recommendations are my personal opinion only.

Top Stock Picks this April 2013 [Philippines]

Some of my previous picks last March 2013 already appreciated significantly. Today, I give another list of stocks which I believe have great potential.

First a disclaimer: What I'll write below is just my personal opinion. The state of market right now is very unpredictable, plus May is just around the corner (there is a saying "Sell in May and walk away!") so take these recommendations with utmost caution and analysts say we're still due for a major correction, but nobody knows for sure what will happen, so might as well put some of my money in my picks:


CPG
Century Properties already released its financials and at P2.04 per share, its P/E is at 10.7. I believe the stock is undervalued and may reward greatly if you hold it long term. The company is expected to earn P3B by 2015. I believe CPG is one of the "rising companies" of the Philippines.

EDC
If you can get this below P6.4 per share then I believe it's a good deal. Its sell down due to Bacman problem may be overly done, and at a technical point of view, the upside is great. But personally, I don't like the management of EDC, FGEN, LPZ and related companies... if you know what I mean.

AEV
Among the blue chips / companies in the PSE index, Aboitiz Equity Ventures has one of the lowest P/E of 12.5 at its current price of 54.3. One thing to note with Aboitiz companies is they are not very popular, I think they should do more PR and commercials for people to notice and invest in them.

VLL
Vista Land released its financials and its P/E is very low which means it's a very good deal. Warning though: This April, VLL's stock price already increased from P5.4 to P6.07 but even at P6.07 the P/E is 11.8, still relatively low so there's still opportunity to buy.



My strategy in this kind of market (very unpredictable) is to have 50% cash, and the other 50% I do averaging on my picks. E.g. buy 10% of my picks now, then if the price goes down significantly buy another 10% and so on. Maybe I'll allocate if stock prices go down in May or if there's a big correction.

I just hold what I have 'til maybe end of the year or next.

My Top Stock Picks for March 2013 [Philippines]

It's getting harder and to pick undervalued stocks these days. But as of today, here's my list for the month of March (2013):


Aboitiz Power (AP)

Aboitiz hasn't announced their 2012 income yet, but my projected PE Ratio for AP is around 11.56 for its current price of P38.50. This is low considering the state of our market today. It will also probably give cash dividends ~4% on today's stock price.
AP's cash dividends ex-date was on March 14. It's expected to go down at least P1.66. For people who are still holding, suggest to continue holding it for longer period (probably until before May).

Security Bank (SECB)

Based on SECB's unaudited income of 7.5B, its PE ratio should be 10.68 11.9 at its current price of P176.70. A low PE especially when you compare it with other banks which are somewhere in the range of 18-20.


PLDT (TEL)

Actually this is my Feb pick, but just in case it still slips below 2900, I think it's a good buy. It will also announce its financial statement on March 6 (same day as Aboitiz) and probably the details of its cash dividends too ~3.9% on today's stock price. It also had a big one-time gain from selling its BPO unit so it has a buffer; the buffer is ~P12B, I think.
TEL cash div ex-date was on March 14 also. It's expected to go down at least P112. Also Citi has a sell alert on TEL with TP = P2700.

[Update]
Manila Water (MWC)

My computed PE for MWC is 13.45 at its current price of P36.35. For an Ayala company, I believe a PE ratio of 13.45 is low. This was my first stock that I bought last november 2012; priced around ~P31. I still hold this stock; as a matter of fact, I topped up last month at ~P34.

This is my personal choice for a long term stock investment. I had neither fundamental nor technical analysis in making MWC my favorite. Even though my other stocks such as MEG, AEV and BDO that I bought after MWC already surpassed its gains, I just like the fact that it's an Ayala company and I like how its graph looks like: a slow uptrend growth. I'm just glad it is showing a good PE ratio and I can recommend it with a basis.


UnionBank (UBP)

My estimated PE ratio is 10.75 at the current price of 127. Aboitiz companies today generally have low PE ratio, when people notice this I believe it will spark a chain reaction on the Aboitiz companies with relatively low PE's like AP, UBP, AEV considering that many of the stocks in our market today are overpriced.

[Update March 14, 2013]

AGI
Alliance Global Inc. (AGI) has just disclosed its 2012 income of P20.8 billion. For its current price of 21.65 my computed PE is 10.691. A low PE + AGI is on PSE index (a blue chip). Conservative target price is around P25.
Please see explanation for more details. AGI's income attributable to shareholders is 13.6B and not 20.8B.

Disclaimer: This is based on personal opinion and research. I'm not liable for any loss in case the above statements are incorrect or the market suddenly crashes. Happy investing!