Friday, July 19, 2013

My Stock Picks for July 2013 [Philippines]

The Philippine stock market was lashed by multiple crises outside the country: U.S. Fed's QE madness, China's slowing economy, Japan's overheating but inspite all these, our country remains fundamentally sound; our GDP is high (7.8%), inflation is low (2%-3%), interest rates remains stably low. My opinion is, generally, the market is in an upward trend (unless we encounter another crisis).

Though I worry that Fed's QE is the biggest bubble to burst yet, that's for another time and for another blog entry. Now, markets are generally at ease, so until the next crisis, here are my stock recommendations:

CPG (Stock information)

CPG's share price went down big time. Based from my analysis, this stock is highly undervalued (7.5 P/E at P1.42). The upside is great. If it reaches P2.00, the profit is already 40%. If it goes back to its 52 week high, that 71% profit.

I call this my Warren Buffet stock because usually when you invest in a stock, at times it haunts you and you can't put your eyes off the market. This one makes me sleep at night. It's a personal opinion; do your research and find your "Warren Buffet" stock.

My buy price is 1.25-1.45.

MER (Stock information)

When the rumor that San Miguel (SMC) company was in trouble, this stock was also affected somehow because SMC has 30% stake in Meralco. Today (July 19), San Miguel's officially announced the sale of shares in Manila Electric Company at P270 a piece. This made the MER's stock price tumble to 275-280 range.

However, Meralco hasn't change, its fundamentals are the same, and it remains a strong company. Meralco shouldn't be affected even if SMC goes bankrupt (knock on wood). There's no real fundamental analysis here, its P/E is still a bit high (17) but it was high ever since. The only analysis is if it bounces back, the upside is big. 52 week high = P397 which is a 43% upside from P277.

My buy range is 270-280.

MWC (Stock information)

Manila Water share price dropped when its deal with Indonesia failed. It was a big opportunity that was lost, however, Manila Water's P/E is at 12 (relatively low) and the snag seems to be forgotten since its price is now increasing.

My buy price is 32-34

MBT (Stock information)

I owned MBT shares before I sold it at 117 then its shareprice skyrocketed to 139.5. Compared to other stocks, the upside is not that great but I recommend this stock because it's one of the stocks that rebounds quickly.

Buy range: 105-109

Obligatory disclaimer: Follow above recommendations at your own risk. The above guide does not tell when you will sell, it's really up to you.

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