Friday, March 1, 2013

My Top Stock Picks for March 2013 [Philippines]

It's getting harder and to pick undervalued stocks these days. But as of today, here's my list for the month of March (2013):

Aboitiz Power (AP)

Aboitiz hasn't announced their 2012 income yet, but my projected PE Ratio for AP is around 11.56 for its current price of P38.50. This is low considering the state of our market today. It will also probably give cash dividends ~4% on today's stock price.
AP's cash dividends ex-date was on March 14. It's expected to go down at least P1.66. For people who are still holding, suggest to continue holding it for longer period (probably until before May).

Security Bank (SECB)

Based on SECB's unaudited income of 7.5B, its PE ratio should be 10.68 11.9 at its current price of P176.70. A low PE especially when you compare it with other banks which are somewhere in the range of 18-20.


Actually this is my Feb pick, but just in case it still slips below 2900, I think it's a good buy. It will also announce its financial statement on March 6 (same day as Aboitiz) and probably the details of its cash dividends too ~3.9% on today's stock price. It also had a big one-time gain from selling its BPO unit so it has a buffer; the buffer is ~P12B, I think.
TEL cash div ex-date was on March 14 also. It's expected to go down at least P112. Also Citi has a sell alert on TEL with TP = P2700.

Manila Water (MWC)

My computed PE for MWC is 13.45 at its current price of P36.35. For an Ayala company, I believe a PE ratio of 13.45 is low. This was my first stock that I bought last november 2012; priced around ~P31. I still hold this stock; as a matter of fact, I topped up last month at ~P34.

This is my personal choice for a long term stock investment. I had neither fundamental nor technical analysis in making MWC my favorite. Even though my other stocks such as MEG, AEV and BDO that I bought after MWC already surpassed its gains, I just like the fact that it's an Ayala company and I like how its graph looks like: a slow uptrend growth. I'm just glad it is showing a good PE ratio and I can recommend it with a basis.

UnionBank (UBP)

My estimated PE ratio is 10.75 at the current price of 127. Aboitiz companies today generally have low PE ratio, when people notice this I believe it will spark a chain reaction on the Aboitiz companies with relatively low PE's like AP, UBP, AEV considering that many of the stocks in our market today are overpriced.

[Update March 14, 2013]

Alliance Global Inc. (AGI) has just disclosed its 2012 income of P20.8 billion. For its current price of 21.65 my computed PE is 10.691. A low PE + AGI is on PSE index (a blue chip). Conservative target price is around P25.
Please see explanation for more details. AGI's income attributable to shareholders is 13.6B and not 20.8B.

Disclaimer: This is based on personal opinion and research. I'm not liable for any loss in case the above statements are incorrect or the market suddenly crashes. Happy investing!


  1. hi sir, may i know what formula you are using for computing the PE ratio? The Pse website has their own PE ratio, is it reliable?

    Thanks!!! ;)

  2. Hi Jonalyn, firstly I want to thank you for reading my blog. Funny you should ask, that was my question also before, does the PE ratio found in PSE, Bloomberg or other sources reliable? Most of the time no, actually I find Bloomberg PE more reliable that PSE, but in most cases, it's best to do you own research.

    PE computation is very easy, you just get their full year income and divide it by the number of outstanding shares, you'll get the Earning Per Share or EPS. You divide the current stock price by EPS and you get the PE ratio. (if full year income is not yet available, you project it. thank you for the idea, I'll post it as my next entry. :)

  3. Thank you sir for the reply :)

    It´s nice to know that there´s already some blogs dedicated to the Philippine stock market. I´m currently paper trading and is still learning now so that when i go home in the Philippines I will be able to trade and invest in stock market intelligently. P.S. pwede ba magtagalog dito? hahaha

  4. nice, haha buti naman, di ako mahihirapang mangulit at magtanong ng magtanong dito. haha

  5. hi sir.....sino want mag invest dito. with VUL...feel free to contact me. 09486840588...from PhilAm Life group of Companies po. tnx.!